比亚迪利润暴跌 巴菲特效应减退

时间 : 2012-08-29 18:24来源 : VOA官网 收听下载次数 :

比亚迪股份有限公司(BYD Co.)从一定程度上可能代表着巴菲特(Warren Buffett),但其表现却令人失望。

巴菲特麾下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway) 2008年收购了比亚迪近10%的股权后,这个中国汽车和电池制造商的股票曾一度飙升。不过,随着比亚迪利润的下滑,巴菲特效应正不断减退。比亚迪股票较今年最高水平已下跌了逾50%。

投资者拍屁股走人的原因是显而易见的。比亚迪所有主营业务都出现了问题,2012年上半年公司利润同比大幅下滑94%。

在汽车方面(比亚迪约一半的收入来自该业务),中国经济减速和政府取消购车补贴均开始对比亚迪汽车业务产生不利影响。今年上半年,中国市场轿车总销量增速同比放缓至6.7%,远低于2009年底同比84.6%的高增速。此外,竞争加剧也在挤压利润率。虽然比亚迪汽车销量同比增加了12.35%,但利润只勉强增加了2.9%。

在手机方面,由于大客户诺基亚(Nokia)的问题导致需求疲弱,比亚迪手机业务的利润降低了四分之一。电池业务是比亚迪真正问题所在。太阳能产业供过于求现象严重,引发整个行业价格暴跌。比亚迪电池业务急转直下,从2011年上半年实现利润人民币1,500万元(合240万美元)变为2012上半年亏损1.54亿元。

当然,也有一些潜在的积极因素或可推动比亚迪股票上涨。该公司在中国电动车市场上处于领军地位,而中国政府计划到2015年全国电动车保有量达到50万辆。另外,如果诺基亚智能手机业务因三星电子(Samsung)在美国专利诉讼问题获得提振,那么比亚迪手机零部件销售可能也会峰回路转。

周二,投资者将比亚迪股票从2009年底逾80港元的高位压低至13.40港元。不过即使按这个价格计算,巴菲特仍是有钱可赚的。相比伯克希尔哈撒韦公司当年买进比亚迪时的约7.90港元,后者的股票涨了近70%。着眼于电动车的长远未来,这位奥马哈先知可能愿意再等等,说不定会有更高回报。但其它投资者显然没他这么有耐心了。

 

BYD Co. might stand for Warren Buffett, yet disappointing.

Shares in the Chinese car and battery maker soared after Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought a near 10% stake in 2008. With profits slumping, though, the effect of the Buffett seal of approval is waning. The shares have fallen more than 50% from their highest level this year.

It's easy to see why investors are turned off. Profits fell 94% year-on-year in the first half of 2012, with problems in all the company's major segments.

In autos, which account for around half of BYD's revenue, China's slowing economy and the removal of government subsidies for car buyers are taking their toll. Passenger car sales growth for China as a whole slowed to 6.7% year-on-year in the first half, down from a high of 84.6% at the end of 2009. More intense competition is crimping margins too. Though BYD's auto sales were up 12.35% year-on-year, the segment eked out just a 2.9% increase in profits.

In handsets, profits fell by a quarter as problems at major customer Nokia NOK1V.HE -7.82%fed through to weaker demand. It was batteries though, that were BYD's real short circuit. Massive oversupply in solar power resulted in plummeting prices across the sector. BYD's battery segment turned from a 15 million yuan profit ($2.4 million) in the first half of 2011, to a 154 million yuan loss in 2012

There are potential positive catalysts for the stock. BYD's position as China's market leader in electric vehicles ties in with Beijing's plans to get 500,000 such vehicles on the streets by 2015. Handset sales too could get a boost if Nokia's smart phone business is buoyed by Samsung's 005930.SE +1.27%patent litigation problems in the U.S.

For now though, investors have pushed BYD's stock down from a high of more than HK$80 at the end of 2009 to HK$13.40 a share on Tuesday. At that price, Mr. Buffett is still sitting on a profit - BYD's shares are up almost 70% from Berkshire's entry price of about HK$7.90. Looking to the long-term future of electric vehicles, the Oracle of Omaha may be willing to wait for a bigger return. But other investors are clearly not so patient.