上证综指连创新低表明全球经济将遇险?

时间 : 2012-08-29 18:22来源 : VOA官网 收听下载次数 :

上周我们还在问:中国的经济减速到底有多严重?然后得出了真实情况很可能比官方数据糟糕这样的结论。本周我们进一步确认,“中央王国”的日子很不好过。

上证综合指数(中国两大重要股指之一,另一个是恒生指数)连创多年新低。周二,上证综指有所上涨,但仍徘徊在三年多来的低位。

中国股市的起伏就像是坐过山车,2005年至2007年大涨了三倍不止,2008年暴跌70%,2009年有所反弹,但之后便稳步下跌。上证综合指数较2009年7月已下跌了40%左右。

反观美国股市,2007年后经历了几次暴跌,之后便大幅回升。与上证综指从未升至2007年高位附近不同,道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)和标普500指数(S&P 500)距各自高点均只有约10%的距离。

哪个指数是更好的晴雨表呢?这可是个很难回答的问题。

海风资产管理公司(Seabreeze Partners)的对冲基金经理卡斯(Doug Kass)写道:上证综合指数2007年10月的下跌是对海外股市发出的第一个准确预警,告诉我们不久后将出现全球经济衰退;正因如此,我们应关注上证综指的价格波动以及它给全球增长带来的警示。

卡斯写道:对于上证综合指数这位观察员来说,有证据在继续表明,全球经济增长重要推手中国的着陆可能比外界普遍预计的更“硬”一些。

这一点至少可从中国远洋(Cosco)这个国有大型船运公司的业绩上得以体现。该公司即将发布一份巨亏报告,而且该公司有可能迎来连续第二年的亏损。经济退潮时,中国远洋因不合时宜的扩张而搁浅。

吊诡的是,一些投资者受上证综合指数下跌的鼓舞,正在进行所谓的“抄底”。道琼斯外汇新闻服务FX Trader的Nicole Hong写道:

人们非但没有将上证综合指数下跌看作是逃离遭受重创的中国市场的信号,反而有更多外国投资者在逢低买入。外国投资者本月成为自今年2月以来首个连续数周净买入中国股票的投资者。据基金研究机构EPFR Global统计,在截至8月22日的两周内,中国股票型基金吸引了9,822万美元的海外资金流入。

上证综合指数2007年的震动绝对是个危险信号(尽管该指数当时还在上涨),只是大多数人都没注意到。

历史会重演吗?

 

Last week we questioned just how bad China's slowdown really is, concluding that it's probably worse than the official numbers are showing. This week brings more confirmation that the Middle Kingdom is struggling.

China's Shanghai Composite index, one of China's two key stock barometers (the other being the Hang Seng) keeps setting fresh multi-year lows. It was up today, but is sitting around more than three-year lows.

It's been on quite a roller coaster ride, more than quadrupling between 2005 and 2007, only to crash 70% through 2008. It rebounded into 2009, but has been steadily falling since then, down about 40% since July 2009.

Meanwhile, after their own precipitous post-2007 crashes, U.S. stocks have rebounded smartly. As opposed to the Shanghai, which never got within spitting distance of its 2007 highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are both only about 10% off those former highs.

Which index is the better barometer? Oh, is that a $64,000 question.

'The Shanghai Composite's drop in October 2007 was the first shot across the bow of foreign bourses accurately cautioning that a global economic meltdown was ahead, and, as such, we should pay attention to the Shanghai Composite's price action and what it might be signaling for global growth,' wrote Doug Kass, a hedge-fund manager at Seabreeze Partners.

'To this observer, the body of evidence continues to suggest a developing harder landing than the consensus expects from this important economic growth driver of the world.'

It's showing up in the results of at least one major Chinese company, the big state-owned shipper Cosco, which is staring at its second consecutive year of losses. An ill-timed expansion for Cosco is running aground as the economic tide goes out.

Almost perversely (and we have another post on this coming), the drop is just encouraging some investors to pick up the purported bargains. Dow Jones FX Trader's Nicole Hong writes:

Instead of viewing the deterioration as a sign to get out of the battered Chinese market, the now discounted valuations are driving in more foreign investors. This month, foreign investors became net buyers of Chinese equities in consecutive weeks for the first time since February, with Chinese equity funds pulling in $98.22 million in the two weeks up to Aug. 22, according to fund tracker EPFR Global.

The Shanghai's tremors in 2007, even as it was vaulting higher, were one definite red flag (no pun intended) that most people missed.

Is history repeating?